Key points
- Gold heading for US$1,400 then US$1,500 then higher
- Silver following with something quite special
- Global equity markets ready to surge
- Heed the markets, not the commentators
- Bifurcation concept set in cement
- Wealth generation accelerating globally
- Dawes Points 2015 Gold Stock Portfolio up 290% in 18 months
- Buy BHP, RIO, FMG and S32
- Buy Copper, Zinc, Nickel and Tin stocks
- Paradigm Securities changing name to Martin Place Securities
What a remarkable few weeks! Brexit vote, Australian election, ASX Gold Index up 20%, negative bond yields and the US equity market within a hair's breadth of all time highs. Stock markets around the world ready to break out and yet still such pessimism is abounding around us.
This is the 52nd edition of Dawes Points and whilst I never really imagined its publication would run so long it certainly has been a very good discipline in following the markets. It would have also been nice to have this Bumper Issue for the 50th but as we haven't seen a US$100/oz one day price surge for quite a while I thought it was worth a comment. So we missed out on that great opportunity and I was on holiday anyway.
This is also the third edition in as many weeks so there are clearly things in the market that warrant attention.
I raised the
Bifurcation concept a couple of months ago to highlight what I saw as mass sentiment that was railing against reality. The real world seems so robust yet gloom has been pouring out everywhere. Two paths lie ahead, one very positive the other just gloom.
The positive entrepreneurial spirit as personified by Australia's gold industry is indeed robust and in other places really positive advances in technology worldwide are leading Main Street Planet Earth to greater things.
This is in stark contrast to the other road where the politico-banking cabal is parasitically entwined in the bulk of the US$100trillion tied up in the bond markets.
The entrepreneurs just want to grow the pie and create things.
The cabal just want to suck out the juices through taxes, fees, salaries, grants, consultants, personal empires, pensions, propaganda, bribes and welfare transfers. Were there really >1,000 Eurocrats/politicos that were better paid than UK PM David Cameron and did they pay any income tax, anywhere?
Trillions of dollars each year milked from tax payers. The Robber Barons never had it this good!
The facts as shown by the performance of the markets and the fundamental drivers of supply and demand have been very much at odds with so much of the market commentary.
How could the UK Brexit voting to leave the EU cause so much bearish wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth? Euro-sclerosis has been with us for decades and the +50% share of GDP of European countries taken over by government bureaucracies that in turn has provided 25-55% chronic youth unemployment is not the way forward. New model needed there. The Soviet Union finally collapsed after about eight decades of misallocation of capital and Euro-Bureaucracy has taken about five decades to begin to unwind.
But back to the markets. Those calling for the end of the world from Brexit (same people, different issue this time) were clearly not watching the markets.
The
Dawes Points last month highlighting strong equity markets and rising gold were well before Brexit result.
Gold is very important in the future world.
Brexit brought out some gold bulls but gold had already had a nice little run on essentially Asian demand.
I consider strongly that the long term gold price trend is up. The trend will be long lived and great in magnitude and amplitude.
Thirty Five Years of Gold History – and it does look a strong +20 years future.
The demand is Asian driven as incomes and wealth expand for 3,300m people and with most of the freely available gold now already having been vacuumed out of the West into these strong hands in holdings as jewellery, bars and coin.
New gold exchanges in Dubai and Shanghai will also finally bring true price discovery to the true markets and gold prices will just stay firm for many years to come. And of course rise.
Gold demand from late comers in the West will have to fight with higher prices to get any of the dissipated gold back.
Gold will become the standard for value.
Clients are long gold stocks holders and I hope very happy. Still so much more upside to come.
The 2015 Portfolio is up an extraordinary 290% and 2016 up over 135%. Individual stocks have done even better. There is excellent potential for further upside in all the major stocks but some sector rotation may be appropriate into emerging gold producers like BLK, CYL, TYX, PNR, SWJ, AUC and AHK.
Very pleased to see BLK exceeding my A$0.90 price given in Feb 2015 when the stock was just A$0.09 and it is close to the A$300m market cap (about A$1.18 now) 18 month target for start of production this Sept Qtr. Of course the market has changed and as has the company, and as has my next 18 month target of A$2.50.
At today's gold price of A$1800/oz BLK is still only 3x cashflow and its resources keep growing. The 58km of strike on the Wiluna Structure is similar to the Zuleika Shear at Kundana so BLK will be busy exploring in very fertile ground for decades yet. Of course I own BLK.
I have lots more opportunities here yet.
North American gold stocks are also performing well and the rise in 2016 is brilliant.
I have had a bit more to say on gold in this CNBC interview.
Silver
Silver is similar to gold in being a precious metal but it has a larger use as an industrial commodity. Demand has been exceeding supply over recent years and inventories have been run down to very low levels.
Silver looks as good as gold in the long term although silver is a long way below its highs of US$50.
However, silver is making a comeback against gold and has strongly outperformed gold over the past few months. The Gold:Silver Ratio is still not far from the Upper Range but it has broken an important uptrend so silver should do better than gold for a year or so.
S32.ASX (market cap A$10bn) produces around 20mozpa of silver so it will be winner although it is only a modest A$500mpa revenue earner but US$10 change is A$250m pretax.
Global stocks outlook.
Typically I don't cover the day to day economic issues and really can't see the point of commenting on general economic stats in this letter but the latest US payroll figures released last Friday are very encouraging and come just as the US equity market is pressuring resistance at all time highs.
Important messages are becoming even clearer.
Particularly the Bifurcation concept.
S&P pushing hard against alltime highs and is still oversold. No Irrational Exuberance here!
And NASDAQ looks wonderful. Technology is the world's leader. And still oversold.
Bifurcation.
And the other side of this is, of course, the Bond Market. How can 2.2%pa for 30 years compensate you for capital risk when inflationary pressures appear to be building? And after just looking at the quality of the management teams of any persuasion in the entire political sphere, would you lend money to any of them.
And European bonds have negative yield so you can pay the government to take your money and then lose it for you.
And have you ever seen a Prospectus or PDS from a government for a bond? Any Directors' liability issues? Disclosures? Failing to meet Prospectus Forecasts on deficits?
When it all goes belly up, and many governments will (– mostly through debasement of the currency), will there be SEC or ASIC inquiries? Could it be that the judiciary could be part of the cabal and let the perpetrators off scott free?
Safe Haven. Flight to Safety.
Lambs to the Slaughter is more like it.
The US 10 Year Treasury Note peaked in 2102 and the price today is just a few percent above the levels achieved in the GFC and the S&P 500 is probably up >200% since the time of those 2008 T Note highs. You might have made 3%pa Buy and Hold. No significant gain for that `Safe Haven'.
Bifurcation.
I have been talking about the great Global Economic Boom and Prosperity now for quite some time but from the wrong side of the market. Most thought I was just far too optimistic but the evidence for such an outcome has remained very clear and quite compelling to those who have sought it out and ignored the continual avalanches of pessimism.
Yes, bond markets were still rising (falling yields) and commodities and gold falling. China and its equity markets were collapsing, the European Banking System was kaput and the US was still in the Greater Depression. Just about every economist was preaching gloom and/or doom. The A$ had to fall further and the iron ore price was down for a generation.
There was no way out.
Build up cash. And so everyone did. Trillions everywhere.
But what really has happened?
Let's look at the US.
The trillions in QE rolled out by Bernanke went to rebuild bank balance sheets with next to nothing making its way into the general market place.
Despite the strangling it is useful to note that property prices in the US have still been rising and housing starts have steadily moved higher. But 1.164m units pa is still well down on long term new and replacement requirements of about 1.5m units pa and the area under the curve is about 6 million of pent up potential demand.
As an aside, if you have cable TV it is well worth watching the quirky NY real estate reality show. The commentary is almost current but the issues raised there and the way that market works suggest the US property has a long way to go in its own bull market.
Housing company stocks are testing 2007 pre-GFC level highs. The markets seem to like this sector too and it looks as if it might be breaking out to much higher levels.
Fed interest rate rises won't hurt at all and should actually stimulate lending volumes especially at current low mortgage rates.
With all the bad news on everything out there one would expect that the most negative action should be falling on the banks as the weakest links. But the market doesn't think so.
So the US seems to be doing just fine and I think we will see some real strength there as short covering takes place and new money from all the cash on the sidelines comes surging in.
China.
I am on my way there again as I write this.
`If you haven't been to China in the past six months you haven't been to China'.
Interesting observation and I think it is probably appropriate.
If you are bearish on China, which part, and, when do you wish to have been bearish and for how long?
1400m people and many regional economies makes generalisations difficult.
GDP growth is slowing marginally but that is purely a matter of arithmetic as actual GDP additions are from ever higher economic bases. Personal disposable income is still rising strongly. Infrastructure spending is up again. Property is booming tech-heavy Shenzhen and elsewhere.
The Shanghai Stock Market is holding up very positively. No collapse here. What was the issue again?
The long heralded collapse in steel production simply hasn't happened either. Talk of it however, resulted in the steel production decline into Spring Festival 2016 which also ran down inventories of product and raw materials. Inventories of wire rod, rebar, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil and medium plater steel were almost 30% lower than a year ago. With a flurry of new infrastructure projects in 2016 brought forward as well, the steel mills were caught really short of steel product and production is back at near record levels.
Domestic iron ore production (all magnetite concentrates) has fallen sharply so imported iron ore is in high demand and are still at record levels. Iron ore prices are recovering and started with the typical short cover rally that no one believed and is now rising again.
RIO has shelved its US$20bn Simandou African iron ore project and about 250mtpa of iron ore capacity has been taken off the market so iron ore supply just might get a little tighter next year.
I expect US$80 within 12 months and perhaps by year end. I won't dwell on it but the chart below looks awfully like the completion of a Wave 2 with a 5 wave C just finishing. If you know what that means. But that would be impossible, wouldn't it. Wouldn't it?
Interestingly I am seeing good references to demand for imported magnetite to replace the 150mtpa or so of very high domestic magnetite concentrate production shut down in China over the past couple of years. Several groups are looking at magnetite projects to get up to meet this demand. Don't dismiss this. Keep watching. I like magnetite.
As noted a month or so ago
BHP, RIO and FMG are strong Buys. These next three graphics are in US$.
BHP Copper, Coking Coal and Iron Ore are OK. Petroleum could come good as well. Stock is cheap.
RIO Now in the best shape of the past two decades. Iron ore, Aluminium and Copper.
FMG Brilliant performance in reducing costs and debt. And looking at Magnetite.
I like magnetite and clients have done very well out of Magnetite Mines Ltd (MGT.ASX) and expect to do extremely well through this rising resources market. Billions of tonnes of softer low strip-ratio magnetite ore and magnetic separation giving very low mining and production costs. And super low cost slurry pipelining to make it even more competitive. I own MGT.
Magnetite Mines Ltd MGT.ASX
Magnetite (Fe3O4) concentrates are a mining product, not an ore, so have higher Fe content (68-72%), fewer impurities, are exothermic in steel making and command a premium of 7-12%/dry metric tonne unit over 62% Fe hematite (Fe2O3) and 18-20% per dry tonne of ore.
Unlike hematite ore deposits which are steadily falling in grade for the major producers globally, magnetite deposits feed a concentrator that gives a long term steady grade magnetite concentrate product.
Something also seems to be happening in the seaborne freight market which has been significantly distorted by significant new capacity at a time of trade volume reduction.
Next year could see some rises in sea freight that would reflect higher trade volumes.
China steel production and demand strength also applies to industrial metals. The long term decline in LME inventories of almost all metals suggests that consumption is still robust. Copper, lead, zinc and tin look tight. Aluminium and nickel have shown significant inventory rundowns leading into 2016 and prices are looking to go much higher.
Copper is the leader. Oversold long term, running into a deficit over the next two years and no stocks.
So the general Resource Sector looks very good and share of ASX All Ords turnover is rising nicely and is up 40% from the lows at the beginning of the year.
And the Small Resources Index is surging, bringing liquidity, market breadth and participation. Turnover share is up almost 150%! Great fortunes are going to be made here. Make sure you participate!!
When we look at Europe and Brexit, the impact on the equity markets has been minimal although the flight to bonds has been strong. Look at these graphics.
London FTSE Massive ascending triangle with long term resistance at just under 7000. Just 5-6% away and the market is oversold.
Germany DAX Has already broken out from that 2000- 2008 resistance level and is oversold. Strong uptrend is OK.
The currency impact of Brexit is also interesting.
The A$ is rising against Europe.
Against the British Pound it seems we are well on the way to higher levels for the A$.
And against the Euro it looks very good indeed.
So the US looks very exciting, China is booming, UK and Germany are doing just fine and Asia is also booming. SE Asia is too and I have been there recently.
Japan – Whatever the reasons –the Nikkei looks good.
India is moving up again after the recent new government and a 12 month correction.
Singapore is just extraordinary and the stock market is ready to go. Lots of pessimism there buts loads of cash!
These is so much more to add to the bullish case but the markets are now doing the talking!
Get on board.
Gold is the key. Resources stocks generally are brilliant and technology is the way forward.
Join the path less well followed and enjoy the ride.
Call me, email me. Get more money into the markets!
bdawes@mpsecurities.com.au +61 2 9222 9111
Oh, yes. I am going back to MPS. Martin Place Securities. More prominent and less confusing. But you know it is me anyway.
Barry Dawes
BSc FAusIMM MSAA
#52
NASDAQ - New Highs
Russell 2000 Small Caps - New Highs
Wilshire 5000 Broad US Market Index – New Highs
UK FTSE - Very powerful now!
Japan Nikkei - Rally heading to new highs again
Shanghai SSEC – Quiet but powerful underlying strength
India Nifty 50 Index - Leading the world and heading to new highs
Australia All Ordinaries – Finally starting to catch up
Equities are showing us where the world economy is going - and it is not going down!!
I expect corporate earnings will be rising everwhere with the US adopting lower tax rates and with improving economic confidence. The equity indices should rise, despite rising interest rates. And the Bears still don't own Shares!
On the other hand the financial market cabal of bond markets, bureaucrats, central bankers, welfare lobbies, politicians and media canvassed here early in 2016 is steadily being roasted and hopefully somewhat dismantled by Mr Trump. Wouldn't it be wonderful if the US, providing 25% of UN funding, decided to drain that swamp as well.
The expenditures using 'near- free money' from low coupon bonds are now over. Bond yields have to rise much further.
You are probably tired of seeing this but it is a critical component of the outlook.
This 30 Year Treasury Bond Index has fallen 16% from the highs in July and, whilst oversold, might just fall another 5-8% before a bounce comes. 16-20% capital losses on 'risk-free assets'.
30 Year T Bond yields are likely to rise to ~3.7% in 2017 and much higher further out.
Currencies and Sovereign Bonds have always held a fascination for me and I consider a sovereign bond is just currency with an interest coupon. Where one goes so goes the other.
The US$ and its 30 Year T Bond are the largest in the markets so need to be respected but at the end of the day they are they are just instruments that are bought and sold.
But if the supply of each (Quantative Easing and Bond-financed Budget Deficits) is rising for the US then it becomes a matter of relativity against other currencies.
The long term channels on the US$ Index have been heading down since 1985 but the rally over the past 2-3 years has been strong and has moved into a new top channel. It could be very tempting to suggest that the US$ might head to 120 on this index as interest rates and bond yields head higher.
Perhaps the strong positive sentiment for the US$ today represents an important high and may be providing a 'good-bye kiss' on this counter trend resistance line.
Note that this current strength against a weak Euro (57% of the Index basket) and the Pound (11.9%) is not confirmed against the Japanese Yen (13.6 %), nor against the Canadian $ (9.1%).
Consideration should be given to a strengthening US$18tn US economy leading to increasing imports and raising commodity prices and thereby assisting most other countries.
The performance of most of the equity indices of the important other economies have certainly been heading higher and will be atractive investment opportunities for capital leaving the US bond markets.
Also, China and Saudi Arabia have been reducing holdings of US T Bonds so those funds will be redeployed to other markets. Probably to gold, commodities and equities.
These countries, together with Russia, are using yuan, roubles and gold as trading settlement currencies and so the trading base of the US$ is steadily being reduced everywhere.
It just may be that the surprise of 2017 is not a strong US$ but possibly quite a weak currency.
Prices of Industrial Metals have been rising over 12 months and this index of LME monthly closes has had a decisive trend break into a new bull market that should last many years.
Iron ore prices have exceeded my US$80 target (did anyone else make this call in the June Half of 2016?) and could quite possibly reach US$95 by mid 2017 before we see a significant pull back.
The price history of oil carries great similarities to that of iron ore and an assessment of the supply/demand factors indicates the market is already in balance, stocks are now falling and the recent OPEC cuts will be helping as well.
These commodities are only part of the story as the CRB Index is suggesting a sharp move higher soon for most commodities and probably led by oil.
The other aspect of this is that gold is just becoming even more interesting.
Gold has broken upwards against T Bonds.China and Saudi Arabia have been sellers of T Bonds and have probably been swapping from the oversupply of bonds into the ever tightening market for gold.
Gold bought for the East from the West at artificially depressed Western prices using funds from sales of very risky sovereign debt paper.
So the Outlook in 2017 is much more of the same only better.
These are the stocks that are considered to offer the best total returns in 2017:-
US equities making new highs after 15 year bases are not saying a bear market is yet to come!
But the bond markets are the ones that are grossly overpriced while commodities are severely underpriced.
The actions of the markets over the past six months and particularly over the past couple of weeks or so are giving strong confirmation that the Great Bifurcation is now a reality and the performance of commodities has been a sight to behold.
What is the fundamental difference between Monday 7 November when the Chicken Littles dumped stocks prior to the US election and Wednesday 9 November when the XAO was up 3.4%, iron ore above US$75/t and copper at US$2.45/lb.
Nothing. Pure sentiment.
And what are those investors with gargantuan holdings in T Bonds thinking now that they are sitting on major (already down 13.6 % for 30 Year T Bonds since the highs in July 2016 and 6.3 % for 10 Year), that will become gargantuan, capital losses.
And those with massive cash positions of over US$70 trillion (I saw a number from a reliable source suggesting US$70tn might be better to use than my US$80tn cash estimate but what is US$10tn nowadays!)?
So where do we go now?
Surely now it will be straight up!
The US equity market made new highs this week.
In the S&P 500, where a major long term base coincides with mostly oversold momentum.
NASDAQ has achieved new highs above the 2000 peak!
And the Russell 2000 Small Caps making new highs.
Short Term Dow Jones 30 Industrials – Look at this action. Another 1000 points to be added very soon?
These say a massive new up leg is starting as millions of bears cover their short positions (and probably change their shorts!).
Globally.
So where to start.
The US election gave us an excellent insight into the powerful financial intertwining amongst the political and welfare sectors and the financial market participants themselves who have all benefitted from the large bond selling programmes at the expense of the economy and most of the middle and working classes. Massive expenditures, ever higher tax burdens, entangling red and green tape and little to show for it.
Margaret Thatcher expressed it well with words to the effect of `Socialism is wonderful. Until you run out of other people's money'.
And the US and Europe (and Australia) are running out of other people's money. That is, the money that wouldn't be better used elsewhere.
To me, this is best explained by considering the ending of the 35 year bull market in bonds.
In a bubble like no other.
The Trump victory was just saying `Enough'! Call it what you will.
But the markets have been indicating this all along.
Consider the strategy as pointed out by the markets over the past two years.
Prices have broken the 2011 downtrend as suggested in the last Dawes Points after eight years of bear market from 2007.
The evidence has been so clear and the perspective has allowed confident assessment of markets and opportunities.
The mix of strongly performing gold stocks coupled with the move into the large cap resources in mid year has been wonderful.
A general Resources Portfolio was set up for 1 July picking up recommendations on the major resources stocks BHP, RIO, FMG, S32, WSA, WPL and STO together with three small stocks, MGT, ASP and PNX, that MPS was raising capital for.
Look at these.
BHP
RIO
FMG
Another five years should see gold above my US$5,000/oz.
In the very short term, gold has rapidly declined from a pre US Election US$1340 spike, down US$160 (12%) to major long term support at $US1180. Note gold is oversold and MASSIVE volume passed through as some big players covered short positions. A reasonable possibility of a major low is being formed here after a five month decline. Don't get despondent about gold.
Note, too, bullish sentiment is very low indeed and ready for a surprise upside surge.
The industrial metals bottomed in 1998 then rallied for 9 years and the last downtrend of eight years has bottomed at a much higher level. Expect at least ten years of uptrend to much higher prices. Relentlessly rising Asian consumption, high capacity utilisation, no inventory and exploration expenditure cutbacks make this an easy projection.
This graphic on copper looks magnificent. The 4 year downtrend from 2011 has also been broken.
What will be the effect of renewed infrastructure spending in the US?
The US economy that everyone dismisses has a mind of its own. How's this for housing starts as at 1 October 2016! Highest level since mid-2007. There must be ten more years yet in this upcycle. Wonderful for copper.
Iron ore has had an interesting journey as seaborne trade expanded to meet Chinese demand that just keeps growing. Steel output is still strong and high cost domestic Chinese magnetite output has been declining. India, ASEAN and the US are depend on Chinese steel exports and increased US infrastructure spending can only increase demand. US steel production at 80mtpa (and about 60% steel scrap-fed Electric Arc Furnaces(EAF)) and consumption at 120mtpa means more imports. From China. Not a lot of serviceable unused steel making capacity in the US so I think high tariffs on Chinese imports will be just another thought bubble.
The now-achieved US$80/t end 2016 target for iron ore wasn't just starry eyed optimism. This is developing into a long term tight market and, if it does, the technical pattern referred to in an earlier just might give the eventual and currently inconceivable new highs in iron ore several years out. Note the long lead times for most new mines (not too many FMGs around) and the declines in Pilbara reserve and ore grades as well as the closure of 170mt pa of Pilbara Yandi ore capacity over the next few years. Could we get US$95/t next year?
Note too, the rise of magnetite ores and concentrates and MGT.ASX is the preferred play here.
Coal is the dominant fuel. Gas is the fastest growing and nuclear has the greatest potential. Renewables are just another thought bubble.
The most interesting is oil.
Opec, Non-Opec and NGLs give us 94mbblpa and growing at 1.5%pa. Non OPEC oil is fascinating. Keep in mind Peak Oil for conventional reservoirs. Tight oil should now be considered petroleum mining. Conventional oil and gas fields have large capital upfront and low operating costs. Tight oil has short life rapid decline fields so capital costs now current operating costs.
The crosswinds within the oil market are enormous and often unfathomable. OPEC is almost a spent force with each player driving its own agenda. The national budgets of most OPEC members are irretrievably linked to oil revenues so the post 2013 oil price has reduced budgets severely Bonds are now being issued and state assets being sold.
It is of interest that most of the monthly OPEC bulletins report higher demand levels and lower output levels than immediately previously given. This market is now in balance so expect higher prices.
So we know now this will all last a long time.
How will it end?
Don't quite know just now. But whenever it is and in whatever way it happens you can be sure it isn't soon.
Of course something else happened a week or so ago.
Donald Trump won the US Presidential Election.
It is interesting how Donald Trump with his 'draining the swamp' to describe the cabal was so similar to the Great Bifurcation although his other fork in the road, whilst expressed and emphasized differently, will give impetus to commodities and world growth through promised major infrastructure.
The Trump victory was strongly hinted at in the statistics and analytics within social media Face Book, Twitter and Instagram where Trump was followed and `liked' by far more than Clinton and the overflowing halls were in great contrast to the tame Clinton gatherings. Take non compulsory voting and you have a very interesting range of dynamics which the `cabal' had ignored. You also saw the difference between Trump rallies and the Clinton gatherings.
The biggest question is whether then the US$ will rise because capital will be attracted to the booming stock market and active economy or will capital see that US imports will rise giving greater leverage to the economies of Asia, Europe, Sth America ... and Africa?
The stock markets of most of these we follow have done well.
Barry Dawes
BSc F AusIMM MSAA
27 November 2016
London
I own or control in portfolios BHP, RIO, FMG, MGT, STO, PNX, S32 and ASP mentioned here.
Contact me now -
Source: Capital Economics
and India too:-
These are both showing improving economic conditions.Note that China takes ~50% of all metals and India is finally beginning to hits its straps with >8% GDP growth. Aggregate figures continue to show consumption is growing in the major metals and the Composite Index shows LME metals are up 29% since the 2008 lows and steel is 41% higher.
Sources: ILZSG, Copper Study Group, Tin Institute
Keep in mind this graphic for steel and think of it as a proxy for all metals. Don't just focus on US or European activity or consumption data!
The average underlying 16 year CAGR for demand for LME industrial metals is 3.24%pa but in more recent times the individual metals are showing very different paths and the underlying trend is still firm.
Some of the growth numbers are quite robust so the increase in net new capacity required is extraordinary. Old mines underperform and even run out of ore so the new additions need to be even higher.Metals consumption is still at record levels and should accelerate after the last two years of slower growth.The expectations here are that deficits will apply to most metals for the next few years.To match the consumption growth rates metals mining and processing output will need to be higher. Higher prices will always bring about increased output but new capacity is needing ever-longer lead times so the pressure will be on prices to the upside.
Copper needs another Escondida each year for the next three years. It is the world's largest copper mine with 1.2mtpa contained copper.How many times have you been underwhelmed by the performance of that new project or disappointed by blue chip Rock of Ages Ltd quarterly production? Gaining that new supply of metal is never easy whilst maintaining existing capacity isn't either.The net result is of course that markets will remain tight and any supply interruption will rely on the inventory buffer. The LME inventory buffer is not very large at present so, again, the pricing pressure will be to the upside.
So coming to prices, we have seen a very active 2016 with good improvements for LME prices for aluminium, lead, tin and zinc as they have followed gold and silver but each of these metals has its own supply/demand character that needs to emerge beyond just sentiment.This Composite US$ Price Index of the six major LME metals is in the process of breaking a five year downtrend and should it do so would provide a very good year for LME metals in 2017.
But the composite is disguising the performance of the individual metals.
With each of these metals it is important to note these points:-
Copper
Ready to break downtrend. Great for the leaders BHP and RIO.
Lead
Lead is not a very glamorous metal but it has held up better than the other metals for almost a decade. Primary lead is only about 40% of total refined lead production and depends on recycled secondary scrap. This metal could become very tight. S32 will benefit.
Tin
Downtrend broken and much higher price targets generated. Small companies and MetalsEx to benefit.
The net effect of stronger consumption demand and also steel mill inventory restocking has been to increase demand for iron ore. And as domestic production has declined due to low prices so has import demand risen.A recent visit to Fortescue's brilliant 170mtpa iron ore operations reinforced the positive outlook for iron ore. The demand position is robust, inventories are at low levels at ports and mills and steel mills are profitable again. FMG expects higher iron ore prices into 2017. And iron ore prices have been rallying. I am still looking at close to US$80/t by year end. Will I get there?
Other steelmaking raw materials have been good with coking coal surging further and is now above US$240/t. Manganese has been better and cobalt is turning up again.
All these improvements in metals prices will be good for the major mining companies and the hundreds of explorer/developers listed on ASX.Existing producers will have strong cashflows and the emerging producers will have market conditions that will allow the raising and application of capital in a far more cost competitive environment than existed in the 2008-2013 Resources Boom in iron ore, LNG and coal that literally crowded everything else out. The evidence just keeps building up to the Dawes Points Global Boom that will bring an outstanding period for resources.
Hope you are on board.
Contact me to benefit from all this. 
Source: Randgold
Even EFT holdings of gold remain firm and even rising while the US$ gold price has had its consolidation pullback. The current position is around 2060t or about 65moz, well above this green line.
Take a look at oil again. Its correction is over. Demand is continuing strongly and market balance is already here. Natural gas is having its own little run and has recently been as high as US$3.40 /mmbtu.
(By the way, I am buying oil stocks again. Ask me what I am doing.)
Look at the performance of gold in the various currencies. It is not just a US$ : Gold relationship:-
Gold in US$ has broken its downtrend, has come back for a `goodbye kiss' and should now move higher.
The Euro is also providing a suggestion by pressuring a resistance line that a sharp rise is now due.
Gold in Sterling is, well, just on a tear on its way to test previous highs.
Gold in Japanese Yen just looks to be a base that will support a strong move sometime. Maybe soon.
And gold in A$ has pulled back to the uptrend line and should also head higher.
The outlook is just strong and we haven't had to pull back on the big picture at all, even though Dawes Points did just fall short on the 6000 for XGD.ASX in July. It will come soon enough.
This pullback in the XGD might just be enough.
US gold stocks hit precisely the 116 resistance level and now after a 25% pullback may just be ready to go again.
The shorter term for the XAU matches the XGD.ASX so we should be seeing action again very soon.
Gold itself in the longer term, just looks robust with momentum indicators turning up again and the 50 week MA is crossing the 200 week MA.
Hold on to your gold, buy more great value dividend paying gold stocks, search out some gold mine developers and watch for some more excellent discoveries.
Barry Dawes
BSc FAusIMM MSAA
24 October 2016
I own and control portfolios with ASX Gold Stocks and ASX Oil and Gas stocks 
The 30 Year T Bond is about to say more and even a 1% fall from here would be doing important technical damage.
Although it would be the conventional wisdom that weaker bonds mean higher yields, and thus the discount rate on stocks’ income streams must rise and bring equity prices down, the market reality might just well be something very different.
It is something of an understatement to say that US$100tn tied up in bonds is at a record level. A record level against global GDP, global equities and global assets. I can’t imagine world history ever having so much tied up in one market and as they say - if you owe the bank $10,000 you have a problem but if it is $10m then the bank has a problem. Governments of the world have a US$80tn and mostly short-dated bond problem. Other borrowers have their own US$20tn problem but they may have very long maturities so may be that is not such a problem.
Now bonds have another quirky feature in that almost all have a finite life (British Consuls were perpetual bonds that were first issued in 1751 and the last of them were finally redeemed in 2015) meaning that they need to be repaid at maturity and probably rolled over to the next issue. As interest rates fall the new interest rate coupon is most likely to be lower and as interest rates rise the annual coupon needs to be higher. The issue price of the bond can of course be set higher (or lower) than the par price of say $100 to keep the coupon the same as the last issue and give a lower (or higher) yield to maturity. A $99.50 priced bond gives a higher yield at a 2% coupon than a $100 priced new issue bond at the same coupon.
As noted last week, the US Government Treasury Bond Portfolio has 70% of its issuance with less than five years’ maturity and the US Treasury is issuing 90 and 180 day bills at very small interest yields so the overall portfolio interest cost is relatively low at about US$400bn pa on its US$13.5tn outstanding debt. There are another US$6tn of debt somewhere.
But keep in mind that US$400bn in annual interest could very quickly get to US$1,000bn if rates rose 2% points from here.
US pension funds generally have a far higher proportion of bonds than equities in their portfolios as they try to match the portfolio maturities with their pensioner obligations, and while the US economy continues to grow it would be expected that these pension funds will maintain or increase their demand for bonds. Central Banks are also likely to be continuing buyers of US T Bonds.
But again as noted
MASSIVE BREAK THROUGH 7000 for the FTSE!!!! 7100!! YOU WERE TOLD ABOUT THIS!!!
Looks like Brexit is going to be very successful for the UK.
The DAX in Germany has been leading and is now ready to resume its upside thrust.
The broad 6500 US domestic listings Wilshire Index is making new all time highs again. Small caps are also doing well again.
Is Sth Korea is about to have a strong run very soon?
India looks good and its domestic interest rates are heading lower.
These markets appear robust and about to move substantially higher.
Even commodities are looking up and as we saw last week, metals and coking coal have been heading higher.
Crude oil is looking good here.
As is Natural Gas
So all commodities seem to be moving higher.
So get this right. Bonds weakening and equities and commodities rising!
So commodities are rising against T Bonds.
So all the above is simply a cyclical response to an extended period of low interest rates and it sounds like Economic Boom to me!
Could all the above be the manifestation of inflationary pressures building up within the economy after so much quantitative easing?
Or could it be the 3300 m people in Asia that are driving all this as these graphics from last week pointed out?
We don’t know yet but the overall picture is still compelling.
But there is so much more to the Bifurcation Revolution.
Source:HKTDC
And also consider the oil and gas pipelines along with the railways and highways.
"
The entire network is growing substantially and we watching the integration of all of Asia. From Siberia to Singapore. Shanghai to Kazakhstan. Burma to Turkey. Connections everywhere.
The benefits to international commerce are major and unprecedented. Internet and rail travel. Freedom and mobility to even the smallest player.
Even Saudi Arabia with its 2030 Vision wants to further encourage Chinese investment in Saudi Arabia and to join in the One Belt One Road revolution.
The Asian activity is high but so is that in Europe. Major new high speed trains, lines and linkages.
And maybe also in the US.
Seems everyone is building even faster trains.
The technology advances associated with VFT networks are extraordinary. From rails themselves and ballast electric motors, high speed bogies, fuel efficiencies, super strength lightweight carriages, power gantries, pantographs, power receptors, braking systems, communications and all manner of new safety devices.
All use raw materials of steel, copper and cement and many utilise high performance materials from alloys and composites to ceramics.
And this transportation revolution is just not with trains. Aircraft demand and technologies are equally breathtaking.
Boeing’s view of the world says 100% growth in the world aircraft fleet by 2035 and current aircraft will make up less than 15% of that fleet.
QANTAS plans a nonstop London Perth 14,000km and 19 hour direct flight in new Boeing 787-9 for 2017.
Richard Bransons’ Boom Supersonic Airliner will fly faster than Concorde and is planned to be flying by end 2017.
And we haven’t even got to motor vehicles with electric cars and all sorts of hybrids.
Or power generation, energy storage and water.
All these transportation gains are likely to significantly boost person to person contact which is true commerce. It may not be GNP related but it will certainly boost commerce and trade.
Would you pay a large sum to sit in the front seats in a 3D VR performance by your favourite artists from the comfort of your own home? You probably would.
Real Estate and tourism will have major marketing revolutions with this system.
No waiting for opening hours for that new apartment or actually staying clear of real lions on your VR safari. No breathlessness on top of Mt Everest.
And Social Media and business conferencing will also be revolutionized.
Watch this video!!
Example VR World: avatars meeting in the VR environment
VR has become the fastest growing new media platform for the world of tomorrow and starting today.
China’s Central Government has also introduced aggressive policies to support high technologies with a strong emphasis on Virtual Reality technology and content developments. By 2020 China is expected to capture 1/3 of a global VR market generating US$30 billion in revenue. The current pace of development in China VR businesses would suggest that China alone will exceed most of the Western industry forecasts and may end up dominating the world VR industry.
You might not yet be part of it but it is coming now very quickly.
The turnover share has also kicked up nicely to say that Resources Shares are back!
BHP, RIO, FMG, S32 and OZL and for the oil stocks WPL and STO are good for a start.
There are a plethora of smaller players in copper, zinc, lead and tin as well as rare earths, technology metals and mineral sands. And oil and gas.
And we have already been strong against Sterling and the Euro.
The markets appear to be bringing together the strong themes of this fork in the road away from bonds and the Fear Trade and towards growth and better times.
So it now becomes a matter of flow of capital.
As a post script I also have two technology related opportunities:-
Aspermont (ASP.ASX) - digital publisher with global resource sector dominance
GoConnect (GCN.ASX) – early mover in VR commercialisation.
Barry Dawes
BSc FAusIMM MSAA
I own all the ASX listed stocks mentioned here. 
Australia's huge cash mountain that needs to be put to work.
Keep in mind that now it has begun the turning process it will be flowing into shares and property for MANY years to come.
The key to the fear market is the rush to cash and bonds for income.
The bubble that encapsulates the bond markets and talk of negative yields is now about to burst.
This graphic clearly highlights the deterioration in the price of the key US 10 year T-Bond.
The price on the 10 year bond is the same as in the nadir of the GFC and the peak in this US T bond market came back in mid 2012.
This graphic appears very bearish to me since each 'good bye kiss' on the lower uptrend line confirms internal market weakness. A sharp move down is really possible and would signal much lower prices and rising bond yields.
The 30 Year has made its high in 2016 but is massively overbought and yes that is a rising narrowing wedge that is usually resolved with a sharp break in the opposite direction.
These two markets had important spike lows in yields in the past two months and are signalling that all rates are likely to be heading higher now.
And the US Treasury thinks that the US Deficit will bottom in FY18 and head higher again. More bonds to sell.
Surprisingly, the US Treasury has only about 30% of its bond portfolio with maturities more than 5 years. It would have seemed logical to get as much long term money at these low rates as possible.
The Euphoria in the bubble gave us the negative interest rate baloney and these are the nearest actions to market 'reversals' one could ever imagine.
UK yields are heading higher.
Germany is certainly bottoming too.
And Japan. Still negative but rising.
Now this is not a doomsday note, far from it, because most of the debt will be rolled over but analysis of the take up of US borrowing does show that domestic Investors have been the largest buyers in this euphoric bubble.
But we are most interested in the flow out of bonds into gold, commodities and equities.
And this is just a wonderful single graph pointing it all out.
Gold is leading.
Australian Gold Stocks have been the key market leaders.
All the rest will follow.
In my view the real economy in the US seems to be doing well with employment, motor vehicle sales and housing. The evidence is strong.
I continue to like this pair of graphics. Housing starts at the highest levels since 2007 but still well below the long term level of 1.5m units pa. The area under the curve is inventory catch up of about 6 million dwellings. Note that the companies in the sector are also doing very well.
These alone suggest interest rates are too low and should be heading higher.
Copper vs 30 Year T Bonds might also be telling us that the deflationary forces are ending and recovery is underway.
All the LME metals have had a good 2016 with zinc and tin being the stars. Expect a lot more to come.
And LME inventories for Copper Lead Zinc Tin are at new lows on the MPS model.
Even more impressive though is the decline in Aluminium LME inventories from 5.4mt (12% of annual consumption – 6 weeks supply) in early 2014 to 2.1mt (just 3.6% now -
The ASX Metals and Minerals has made an important downtrend break.
And you may have noticed coking coal prices hit US$200/t last week.
Source: Metal Bulletin
Quite an impressive performance. Up 144% in under 6 months. Many other commodities will be doing this soon too.
I hope you are feeling the Boom coming through.
The world has changed radically over the past decade as the emerging countries of Asia and their 3,300m people accelerate their wealth generation and living standards.
Here we can see the aggregates in terms of energy consumption and also from steel consumption as Non-OECD (mostly China, India and ASEAN) rapidly overtakes the OECD countries. Make sure you are not looking at the world through the rear vision mirror.
Wood McKenzie also kindly has shown (again courtesy of Fortescue) a graphic showing the different regional growth rates in China.
The rolling recession in 1982 in the US provided a wonderful example of a significant and very diverse economic unit. Misery in the Oil Patch and the Rust Belts of the day were offset by the Florida grey immigration and booming SW. Silicon Valley was emerging as well. Transitions and transpositions.
The Recession of 1982, the worst there since the 1930s, led to the biggest US equity bull market ever. Is this what is happening again now, globally?
Technology is leading.
There is much more to say about technology in so many areas and do watch closely Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality. More coming in Part 2.
And this graphic speaks volumes for India if you haven't seen it before.
I still like gold very much and consider that after almost 10 weeks of correction gold and gold stocks are about to move ahead strongly
You might like to note some of my recent interviews on gold
Diggers and Dealers in 2016 was the Australian Gold Industry Show this year with some truly brilliant achievements recognised, displayed and rewarded. The Gold Industry has done very well recently.
And whilst you might be just observing the share price movements with your own particular stocks jumping 100% or so this year (Austex says there were 104 stocks that rose by over 50% in July 2016 and another 40 in August – thanks Rob Murdoch) the underlying improvements were far more important.
You need to understand that the period from 2000 to 2013 was actually something of a lost decade and more for general mining in WA as the demands of local iron ore and LNG projects and LNG and coal on the East Coast crowded out gold and metalliferous mining.
But you would be aware of the 750% run up in the ASX 300 Gold Index from 2000 to 2011. Big gains here. Before and after the GFC.
But did you realise that over that same time WA gold production fell almost 50% into 2008 before recovering?
The Yilgarn and the region around Kalgoorlie in particular felt it quite badly before the recovery finally took place in 2010. The expansion from here could be even stronger if the projections from the Zuleika Shear Corridor play out and we add Blackham’s Wiluna operations and that expansion.
So don’t give the credit of the recent run in gold stocks just to the A$ being weaker. Note that the A$ rose until 2011 as gold production recovered and it was this gold production improvement that set the gold stocks moving. Recall the Dawes Points reconstruction of the ASX 300 Gold Index that focussed on the performance of Australian domestic gold producers. Please note the A$ will be rising again with a break over US$0.80 soon.
The A$ gold price was rising strongly into 2011 as gold production recovered and has generally held above A$1500 for quite some time. Recently A$ gold has been consolidating around A$1750 and is poised to run higher. Even with a rising A$.
So give the accolades for the success to those properly deserving it - entrepreneurs, engineers, geologists, drillers, contractors and project managers. And yes, even the bean counters too! All please take a bow.
The recovery has come mostly from important and expanding operations in the Yilgarn at Kundana, Leonora, Kalgoorlie and Laverton
The site visit to NST’s Zuleika Shear Corridor operations was truly enlightening. Thank you guys.
The EKJV has found something quite special here and key Zuleika Corridor players NST and partners and EVN are all adding to resources and output.
The combined output of over 380koz in FY16 showed good growth and expectations are for higher numbers in FY17.
The 383koz on FY also made the Zuleika Corridor the fifth largest producer in Australia.
There are five fronts to give the ELJV about 250koz in FY17 and another 9 for future years.
The probabilities of the 2-3moz above the blue decline line being repeated below are quite high and should ensure some long mine life here. The `step change’ in mineral inventory referred here is likely in 2016.
The extension at Raleigh (122koz @ a very modest 42g/t) is also likely to add a few years’ ore at these high grades.
Interestingly currently almost 60% of EKJV ore is lower grade development ore (NST is driving and developing in the narrow vein ore zone) so that future mined ore grades should more closely reflect the higher reserve and resource grades.
I hope you are aware of the 107m @ 3.1g/t and 197m @ 2.4g/t at Paradigm. Early days but this is an orebody. What sort, who knows. Keep watching here.
The possible output levels described here would require an expected expansion of the Kanowna Belle mill and probably even a new mill closer to these mines. Impressive. What a goldfield! Certainly these are my own estimates but while NST has the tonnes and ounces, the cash and the manpower it is more likely than not to happen. Let’s watch for developments.
Possible Gold Output from EKJV and NST (koz)
In the gold sector we have our MPS Universe of 20 stocks (ex Newcrest) which on the data have a current PER of just 7.4x.
An Aggregate Market Cap of A$18.53bn.
Aggregate Gold Production in FY17 of 4843koz (+17%), after up 8.9% in FY16 and up 18% in FY15.
FY16 was also a major turnaround in earnings. These 19 stocks had A$1043m in reported earnings after a A$448m sector loss.
At A$1750/oz we are looking for sector earnings to double to A$2100m.
That means 7.4x earnings for FY17 and 7.1x CFY18.
Those poor souls who seem to think that an NPV of an underground gold mine is a fair valuation are just going to be wrong forever and as Dawes Points put it are `on the wrong side of the market’
Central Norseman Gold began mining underground in 1933 and for most of my investing lifetime had about 3 years mining reserves. The goldfield still has mineralisation for another 20 years mining at least.
The market will pay more for underground mines.
So a PE ratio valuation is just fine by me.
Note, too, the dividends.
We have NST, EVN, RRL, RSG, OGC and now NCM paying dividends.
NST has so much on its plate and making so much money it is unsure of what to do. Dividends are flowing and it has a conditional special dividend after the Plutonic sale. It won’t be able to spend it all so expect dividends to rise. RRL has given us a 58% payout ratio. They know the story.
RSG is offering dividends in gold! Simply brilliant! And NCM has returned to the fold with resumption of dividends.
EVN is on the acquisition trail again but the jury may still be out here. Dividends up but so is new equity in and debt.
High gold prices mean the gold companies will be generating strong cashflows and so will be paying more dividends.
Recall my statement about gold mining companies being safer than banks and paying higher yields.
Interestingly this universe has seen a flattening median AISC costs in FY16 but more importantly there was a 4% fall in net pretax costs/oz.
Dawes Points has identified another 30 companies with resources that will be developed over the next few years. Three companies previously in Major stock universe have been move to the emerging group.
Some you might know many of these but most you won’t so I will keep most of them unidentified until clients are all set with the best but you will know what the sector is doing.
All projections are my own based public information but the ingenuity of Australia’s gold industry operators and a strong gold price (even in A$) give me comfort that I won’t be too far off in my projections. After a decade of capital starvation the industry is now in favour again and development capital will be springing out from every imaginable sources (punters, institutional investors, US Europe, China, SE Asia, Japan, hedge funds streaming, gold loans - you name it ) and of course there will be many more currently inconceivable sources. That is just the way it works.
Only just starting and look at this one.
This is a powerful bull market in gold. Respect it and try to understand it.
We should have some real fun over the next few years. Stay the course!
Barry Dawes
BSc FAusIMM MSAA
7 Sept 2016
#53 
As the XGD approaches 6000 it is clear we are not now just picking up stocks that are cheap against the overall share market but they are still cheap against gold.
The relative performance of the XGD against the A$ gold price was shown last week and the peak in the XGD in April 2011 at 8499 was with A$1408/oz. The low in Nov 2014 was 80% lower at 1642 at an A$ gold price of A$1352 that was just 4% lower.
In the big North American market the gold stocks (the XAU) essentially underperformed US$ gold for two decades from 1996 despite the runup in gold from US$250 in 2000.
Should the longer term average of around 0.225 on this graphic be reattained then the XAU would still have a 200% rise against gold coming with the first stop still 50% higher than today.
We all know the All Ords has struggled this year whilst the XGD is up 100% (the Dawes Points 2016 Portfolio is up 126%) but I still think it is early days yet so the outperformance should continue for quite some time.
In North America again gold stocks are up 150% against the SPX and this graphic suggests another 400% to come. Given that I am a bull on the US equity market it should mean gold and gold stocks will be looking very exciting. Again, for quite some time to come.
I think you will agree that the evidence in the gold sector is clear that something big is underway and clients have benefitted very well so far.
This same evidence is suggesting that the something big won't be limited to gold and silver but will extend into all resource sectors.
We can see it in the performance of metals like copper where technical support is at important levels and price is oversold. And demand is still robust and LME inventories are low.
What is there not to like?
And whilst we are all intrigued and excited about the new truly disruptive technologies coming in energy generation and power storage that may really change the world and end the Age of Hydrocarbons the markets themselves are suggesting that it isn't quite time yet for that to occur.
The big oil stocks seem to indicate that oil prices have bottomed and will be heading higher in years to come.
I think its time to seriously consider adding selected hydrocarbon stocks to the portfolio.
All this action is occurring in the gold sector while I have been taking a short break in ASEAN country.
Singapore was quite extraordinary in so many ways as passed on last week but I also made my first visit to Vietnam.
95 million people here and it seems like China on steroids. Ha Noi and Ha Long are showing massive construction and property development. Like China, developments have vast population drives to underpin them and provide rapid investment payback programmes that in Australia we could not fully comprehend.
ASEAN is 800m people together with rising living standards that for some countries are still well above China.
And ASEAN consumes 85mtpa of steel yet produces only 20mt.
And that little side show that caused all the fuss last week was quickly forgotten by the markets and the underlying forces are heading higher again.
I have not called the bond markets well but that doesn't mean the issues don't exist or have gone away. This still tells me that the risk reward in sovereign bonds is very unfavourable.
And when returns on low risk gold are so strong why bother taking those other risks in a market that is clearly rigged. Besides, when the problems start really start to emerge, the sellers of bonds will be buying gold and gold stocks!
Barry Dawes
The rally in the gold price since Jan 2016 has also provided something equally fascinating.
Here the B wave rally to US$1320 has again exceeded the Wave I high of just under US$1300.
The subsequent breakout above US$1320 is important.
Germany
Both these key markets are well positioned technically and long term (and now short term) oversold.
The picture in the US seems robust indeed with the major indices pushing against all time highs.
Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 close to all time highs
NASDAQ seems to want to break sharply higher
Russell 2000
Shanghai still hasn't collapsed!
India is moving higher after its correction
While equities are doing just fine it seems commodities are now rallying from incredibly oversold levels.
And this critical price relative is really quite instructive. Extremes provide great turning points and great entry points.
Which brings us back to gold stocks.
The ASX 300 XGD Gold Index will probably get a boost through the addition of an extra two or three gold stocks next week and as they will have been recent star performers they will probably accelerate the XGD's performance.
My 6000 target for 2016 doesn't look so distant now does it? Just 1100 points, just 22%. Might do it in July!
To put this in perspective, this little table from the Dawes Points universe of 22 key gold producers says that at 4890 we have the index on about 6x earnings at A$1770.
I have even added a line for A$2000/oz which gives just 4x earnings. Again a higher gold price gives a higher A$.
This actually gets a lot better.
Whilst this universe is the same one I have used for almost 2 years it is soon going to get a boost from another 30 emerging gold producers I have identified and am monitoring.
Then we will be having some real fun!
As pointed out in the last Dawes Points on gold, the strategy has been to select the prime opportunities in the key geological regions and stick with them whilst keeping an open mind on new emerging opportunities.
Stay the course. Hold those incomparable core stocks and wait for the rest of the world to catch up with what we have known for quite some time.
I am in Singapore just now and have been blown away by the wealth, the architecture and the art work. Man's creativity is being displayed so well here as it is in so many parts of Asia.
This period of global prosperity has a long way to go.
Take the Bifurcation Highway and enjoy the smooth ride!
I had hoped this 50th edition would be a blockbuster but I am on holiday now so the world will have to wait!
Barry Dawes
F Aus IMM MSAA
`As a Post Script and a consideration of `What if', you are all aware I am sure of the plethora of lithium wannabees and graphite promoters on ASX seeking to capitalise on the disruptive technologies associated with power storage in new generation batteries. This is a very exciting development.
Well as an alternative you could consider a company LWP Technologies which has just entered into a JV to develop an Aluminium-Graphene battery that has characteristics that if successful could leave lithium graphite behind.
Look at these specifications:-
