Category: The Dawes Points Daily

Markets have bottomed out. ASX Gold Sector moving higher

by Barry Dawes
  • Gold ready to move up again.
  • Expect a much higher A$ in the coming years.
  • Some excellent LT charts here.

No changes to outlook or strategy.

Heed the markets not the commentators.

Its Bull Market continuation for years to come.

US equity market back into next uptrend channel.

Downtrend broken for the DOW 30 Industrials.

Lots of data here.  All bullish.

  • Gold looks brilliant.
  • Silver getting ready to move.
  • A$ strong and rising.
  • Global Boom intact.
  • LME metals still tight and little inventory build.
  • Oil has bottomed.   Market tighter than current commentary expects.



BUY oil stocks


BUY Lithium stocks  LKE PLS GXY

Gold is moving to challenge previous 2011 highs of US$1800-1923 and has a near term target of US$1800 where some consolidation `should’ take place.

But note that more consolidation around here could allow gold to exceed previous high at US$1923.

Shorter term suggests the current consolidation is nearly over and we should move higher.

Don’t you just love long term charts!  From Jason Atkinson in Dallas  @schism

Institutional investors have added to portfolios abut are still low compared to previous gold bull market leg.

The main driver is likely to be the short covering from Western gold market participants although it would be expected that Asian demand is likely to be soft for a while yet.

Physical gold is scarce and premiums are being paid for coins and bars.

Some US numbers on coin sales.   (Can’t confirm source though)

US$ holding strong.  The numbers might seem horrific but just think of the numbers everywhere else.  Who would buy the Euro(57% of this index)?

Nth American Gold Stocks

And those liking the long term,  the XAU should rise about 50x over the next decade.  From Jason Atkinson in Dallas  @schism

And here.  Gold stocks vs  S&P500.    From Jason Atkinson in Dallas  @schism

A$ has had a major reversal.

A$ will follow gold and goldstocks

A$ gold to consolidate with rising currency.

The Australian gold industry is doing very well at present with record production and record exploration at a time of record gold prices.

Gold sector shares should rise much higher and action should just get better as market breadth expands and more investors participate.

Aren’t you glad you bought NST for dividends a few years ago and not NAB or the other banks!


When I think of Silver I think of Palladium.  When I think of Palladium I think of Silver.  For Silver Bulls   - From Jason Atkinson in Dallas  @schism

The low for oil is in.  The recovery will be rapid.  Graphics from @Gradhhy

Oil: Global Crude Storage Builds In April Are Nowhere Near Analyst Estimates

LME metals inventories showing no appreciable build-up (other than nickel).

Moment of truth for iron ore

Shanghai is holding up very well.

Lithium is looking good.

It is time to be proactive in this market and recognize that all these fiat expenditures will be very good for gold.

Call me to participate  +61 2 9222 9111

Morning Market Brief

by Alison Sammes

Overnight Headlines

  • The final Eurozone PMI for Sep'12 rose to 46.1 from 45.1, revised up from a preliminary reading of 46. The most notable single nation PMI cake from France where the index fell to 42.7, from 46 the previous month.
  • The number of unemployed in the Eurozone rose to 18.196m in Aug'12, up 34,000 from the previous month and to the highest level on record. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.4%. Notably, Spanish unemployment hit 25.1%.
  • Late on Friday, the Spanish banking system showed it required £59.3b for recapitalization plans, which was in line with expectations.
  • Moody's stated that Spain's bank recapitalization plan is "credit positive", but ultimately may be "insufficient".
  • Bernanke gave a speech to Economic Club of Indiana overnight in an attempt to shed some light on QE3, stating the basic monetary policy strategy is "the same as its always been".

Resources Snapshot

  • Xstrata recommended Glencore’s revised £20.5b takeover to its shareholders.
  • Indonesia's new mining laws that came into effect in May'12 and relate to exports have had a profound effect on cutting exports, particularly to China. For example, Chinese imports of nickel from Indonesia in Aug'12 fell 39% to 1.48mt.

International Equity Markets

  • DOW JONES: Up 0.58% (or 77.98 points) to 13,515.11. Markets across the U.S. gained overnight on upbeat manufacturing data, but pulled back from session highs as Bernanke spoke about the Fed's decision to launch QE3. In economic data, the U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose 51.5 last month from 49.6 in Aug'12, the highest reading since May'12 and an unexpected return to expansion. Additionally, the Commerce Department reported that construction spending fell 0.6% in Aug'12, well below the 0.5% gain expected. 26 companies gained with 7 topping 1%. The financials had a strong run with American Express and Bank of America gaining 1.5% each. The notable fallers included Caterpillar and Microsoft.
  • FTSE 100: Up 1.37% (or 78.38 points) to 5,820.45. European markets noted their strongest one night gain in recent weeks overnight as better than expected U.S. data boosted investor sentiment. The banking sector was notably higher with RBS, Lloyds, HSBC and Barclays gaining between 2.5% and 3.7% respectively. Additionally, heavyweight mining companies rose with BHP and Rio gaining 2.6% and 1.8% respectively. Fresnillo, Kazakhmys and Randgold Resources followed higher. Xstrata gained 2.4% after the Board recommended the revised Glencore offer. Lastly, energy companies BG Group and Shell gained 2.3% and 0.9% respectively.

Overnight Summary