Interviewed on Proactive Investors on Wednesday afternoon, Barry Dawes talks on Bulls, Bears & Brokers about his predictions regarding the gold rally that is happening now in the market.
As a long-time GoldBug, Mr Dawes has consistently read the gold market accurately and is happy to share his insights. Regular commentary has been provided through his stock market analysis "Dawes Points". He regularly suggests that, like himself, investors need to follow the markets, not the commentators.
Is Now The Time To Buy Gold?
If you have subscribed to Dawes Points or follow either MPS or Barry on Twitter, you would have received Wednesdays' commentary. Inspired by trends in the Gold price and in Gold Stocks, Barry's shows why he thinks it's a good time to Buy.
In fact, just in the process of accumulating the data for that issue saw the price jump 1 per cent, a definite sign of the gold rally!
Who Says This Is A Gold Rally?
The Dawes Points is an in-depth technical analysis of the stock market. The focus is usually on the effects world events have on the Australian stock market. Before starting his own firm Barry spent 30 years in investment management as a senior executive.
While his training as a geologist ensures Barry has an exceptional understanding of the resources industry. This is why when he gets excited, those around him get excited as well.
If you don't have time to read the full analysis, watch his latest interview to get the overview in under 5 minutes. And stay updated by following Barry on Twitter (where he regularly shares his favourite charts of the day).
How To Develop Your Own Analysis Strategy
To quote from the latest Dawes Points market commentary:
Watching the technicals of the price action of gold in US$ and also in other currencies helps a lot.
Watching gold stocks helps even more.
The Philadelphia Gold Index is the key index to watch. It has already broken out of its wedge and is showing leadership.
The fundamental factors for supply and demand for gold are, as repeated here often, many and varied so one perspective on debt, currency, COMEX market manipulation, monetary expansions, inflation, wars, economic turmoil or central bank holdings is good as another at any one time and the issues must all settle down as just a matter of buyers and sellers.
Who are the buyers and who are the sellers?
This is unknowable from week to week but if we come back to the @DawesPoints view of Asian buying and the West having sold and now considering to restock there is a very powerful argument for a continuing sharp rise in gold prices in all currencies.
Also, a strong economy will bring strong demand for gold through jewellery and maintaining insurance proportions of growing asset portfolios.
In the end though, we are all reliant on some form of technical analysis to ascertain what the millions of gold buyers and sellers are doing. There are so many different styles of technical analysis out there and many excellent exponents of their crafts. Most try to catch each move but at the end of the day, it needs to be recognised that this is a very long term bull market and we only need to get right the major moves and turning points.
This means we don’t get to sell all holdings at an index high but it pays to hold on to the key stocks like CYL that just continue to make new highs. And hold on to key stocks like NST, KLA, EVN, RED, TGM and TBR.
The @DawesPoints Global Boom TM is still well on track and is being led by the US equity market where we are witnessing the Panic Buying discussed here so often, despite the occasional pullback.
This @DawesPoints positive outlook on the US economy, the US equity market and the global economy hasn’t wavered over the six years of this newsletter’s existence despite the gyrations in all the major commodity, equity, bond and currency markets over that time.
The fundamental factor is the flow of capital.
The flow of capital from defensive positions in bonds and cash built up since 2008 and the decline in bond yields and interest rates reflects this hysteria that gave such low yields and even negative interest rates that in hindsight will truly be seen as the Scam of the Century.
Bond yields have bottomed here.
So bond prices are falling.
Rising yields and falling prices. Risk is rising rapidly.
This flow of capital out of these defensive positions into equities commodities, property and gold is only just starting and has many years to run.
Much is made of the supposed impending doom of the US$ because of all its debt but the markets are telling us something quite different.
The US$ continues to rise.
DawesPoints has been agnostic here because the US$ has been steady on this index for almost five years and rising against most other currencies outside this index.
But the Euro, with a 57% weighting here, looks quite precarious technically and Brexit is likely to remove the second-biggest economy and leave the other 27 and six hopefuls sucking on the teat of a bankrupt ECB. And the ECB intends to bring Climate Change into its policies to further add to Eurosclerosis. The UK Election is 12 December.
There is no technical support in this graphic for the Euro in the short term.
And nothing here in the longer term.
The Euro is the King of the fiat currencies.
On another note, the US$ might be hinting that the Trump Era will do what no man has done before:- halt the ever-rising budget expenditure affliction gripping the world.
The Impeachment Investigations clearly show a complete disregard for facts and due process and have brought out the massive cost of a bureaucracy intent on having very nice lives on the public purse. The public is starting to see the largesse in Foreign Aid and who are often the beneficiaries at the expense of the average taxpayer.
Those with inquiring minds could well do to access this and read `Here’s The Plan’ set out in the latter half of this opinion.
This could work a treat and save us from all that potential hyperinflation that would otherwise occur.
Something similar should be put intrain here in Australia.
So to Gold.
Asian economic growth continues despite all the negative commentaries and we see it as new highs in the Indian stock market and also in Taiwan with China still holding on.
Growing demand for gold is still with us despite short term variations.
Keep in mind a strong US economy will boost US jewellery demand and for gold as a share of rising portfolio values.
Gold in US$ had run to US$1566 in September and has had around three months (depending on how you view it) of consolidation and has pulled back to a low of around US$1446 giving a US$120 decline.
Interestingly, an uptrend line from Dec Qtr 2015 picks up US$1450 and this also ties in with trading around US$1450 levels in 2013.
Note too, that gold dropped over US$400 in the three months to late June 2013.
This could work in reverse with gold jumping US$400 over the next few months once the correction is over.
The long term gold price chart picks up this 2016 uptrend and shows its strong roots in the 1999-2001 lows. Nice!
The Gold price in Euros is looking good to me and seems ready to shoot higher. This may relate to that 12 December UK Election
Watching the technicals of price action of gold in US$ and also in other currencies helps a lot.
Watching gold stocks helps even more.
The Philadelphia Gold Index is the key index to watch. It has already broken out of its wedge and is showing leadership.
The XAU is actually leading the GDX Gold stock ETF out of the blocks but GDX is outperforming overall.
Key market leader Barrick is very well positioned for a sharp upmove soon.
Newmont is also ready but with a different pattern.
And the royalty companies are doing even better. And maybe ready to jump into a new trading channel.
A global exploration stock ETF GOEX provides another perspective for smaller companies.
We can go on all day with Nth American opportunities but this is where we are now with ASX gold stocks.
The Australian gold industry continues to grow its output and is on its way to 350tpa.
The quarterly data shows the strength.
Whilst WA is recovering it is NSW and Victoria that are providing the growth in output.
This shows the renaissance in gold mining in SE Australia as detailed in my recent Symposium presentation.
Interestingly we now have around 75% of Australian gold production from underground with Northern Star achieving outstanding mining productivity in its mines, Newcrest is one of the lowest cost major mines, Kirkland Lake’s Fosterville is currently the world’s highest-grade major mine (632,000ozpa @ 41.8g/t in Sept Qtr). NST has superior operating stats and Newcrest is a world leader in high volume block cave mining.
For the ASX S&P Gold Index, this looks like a massive inverted head and shoulders with a neckline at about 6000. The Index in August 2019 made a new high above the 2011 high and is simply pulling back to the neckline but an uptrend from 2012 is likely to keep the XGD above 6000.
Interestingly, those ~25% pullbacks seen throughout the 2000-2008 bull market is coming in here too.
Enough is enough!
And gold stocks have retreated against gold back to around 3.1x (but mostly through Newcrest with its 45% weighting in XGD).
So looking at the stocks let’s see what is afoot.
The leaders have made outstanding achievements in their local operations and have taken their expertise, technologies and balance sheets to opportunities in North America.
Northern Star with Pogo, Newcrest with Red Chris, St Barbara with Atlantic Gold and now Evolution with Campbell RedLake are showing the world their skills of underground mining.
This is a very long gold bull market so these companies have many years to accommodate these new assets and get the type of returns seen in their main Australian operations.
It was noteworthy that incoming Barrick CEO Mark Bristow said that his RandGold managers all had technical competencies and business qualifications as well. He also said the Barrick managers had only technical qualifications.
The global opportunities for Australian companies are very large from here.
NCM – Perfect pullback. No downside here!
NST – Still Moonshot. No downside
EVN - Tightly managed operations – Next growth phase – No downside
SAR – Tightly managed. Next growth phase
SBM – Next growth phase Already punished into excellent value
RRL - Still growing
SLR – Steady as she goes
RMS - The quiet achiever Over delivers
TBR – Still value here. Hidden assets
Smaller stocks provide excellent value
The Africans are coming together now
PRU - Growing nicely
CDV - Biggest discovery in the Birimian in over 20 years - 7moz So cheap!
TGM - Huge potential and near term production
Victoria is getting very exciting for us now with:
CYL - Hancock now 15% A$10 target still in place
KLA - Fosterville is outstanding. Buying opportunity now
KZR - Chasing up Castlemaine
CHN - Well cashed up
RED - How big might this be?
BLK - Down but not out
BGL - How big might this be?
NTM - Making good progress
PNR - Waiting on Norseman acquisition
NVA - >2moz in elephant country
NVO.V - This is an extra special stock Pilbara conglomerates.
This is an extra special stock Pilbara conglomerates. I am a believer.
Bulls Bears & Brokers: Martin Place Securities Barry Dawes on market highs and lows and the Super Pit at Kalgoorlie
Renowned resources expert and stockbroker, Martin Place Securities executive chairman Barry Dawes, is interviewed on Proactive about the highs and lows of the markets.
Stock Market Highs & Lows
With record highs expected in the equity markets, Barry discusses what investors will likely see in the coming months looking at the bond markets and the volatility in currencies. You will also want to hear his commentary on commodities.
What affect will Saracen buying 50% of the Super Pit at Kalgoorlie have?
Although a fan of gold stocks, for obvious reasons, Barry shares his advice around investing in certain developers and emerging producers.
The world is an interesting place at present with some important structural changes underway in a number of countries.
The US is of course the key to all these developments and from a market perspective it is coming to the biggest markets of them all: currencies and bonds.
I am unable to make out much from this measure of the US$ as it seems to want to move higher despite a recent sell off. The US$ against the Euro and Japanese Yen does not seem to want to go lower although the British Pound has jumped in anticipation of a successful Brexit.
The bond markets of the world seem to be staging a peaking in price and bottoming of yields in what is described as the Scam of the Century where sovereign borrowers have obtained almost `free money' from panicking lenders. This game is coming to a close.
The recent increase in yields appears to be signalling the end of this period as it is notable that although new lows in yield were achieved in US 30 Year and in the 10 year for UK and Germany, these new lows were not confirmed by the key 10 year bonds in the US and Japan.
Recent lows in yield are suggesting that the 38 year decline in interest rates is now over.
Why are bond yield declines ending? The economic cycle is turning up again.
The key driver is Trump's USA.
US Consumer Sentiment is high despite a recent small decline and should support the US economy where the anecdotal evidence of activity is very wide and strong.
Housing is important to watch in the US.
It is only about 4% of US GDP but data indicates that as much as 15% of the economy relates to home building.
US housing starts have been soft for almost three years but the latest numbers gave a strong increase and this needs to be set against the long term requirement of around 1.5m units per year.
This graphic shows that substantial catchup of over 6m units is needed.
Multi-unit structures are taking a larger share of the housing market.
The economy is clearly benefiting from the increase in employment and the low interest rate environment. 30 year mortgage rates are very attractive for home buyers.
The Housing Sector Index for listed companies is also very strong and almost at all time highs.
And it is not just housing.
Dow Jones Trucking Index is close to all time highs.
The rate of change on economic activity is improving despite the superficial chatter.
But this story is far from just this. Raw materials for housing are looking firm.
The lumber price is bottoming and is ready to move higher.
Copper is also showing signs of picking up again.
Copper has its greatest use in buildings construction.
Global mine production is running at about 20.5mtpa with scrap at about 4mtpa and consumption is at about 24.5mtpa. The market will have a deficit of about 0.4mt in 2019.
China accounts for about 50% of all copper consumption.
Crude steel output in China has remained over 1000mtpa and September was a 20 month high in iron ore imports into China.
Keep in mind there is NO INVENTORY of LME metals out there. Copper, lead, zinc and tin are low and aluminium and nickel have has massive inventory reductions over the past few years and are now, too, at critical levels.
Port inventory of China iron ore is rising again but over 40m tonnes has been taken out of the market due to higher demand and the Brazillian shortfalls.
India is the second largest producer of crude steel at 114mtpa and is now an importer. India's target of 300mtpa of crude steel by 2030 will require another ~300mt of ironore and most will be imported. Note the growth in crude steel production in Vietnam and in MENA so that it is not just a China import market.
The price of oil still needs to reflect declining output from so many oil producers due to peak production from old conventional reservoirs.
Gold and iron ore are leading but copper and oil are ready to move higher and join the leaders.
And all the major commodities are now in uptrend.
And note things aren't all bad in China despite the Trade War.
China Caixin PMI History This has moved `unexpectedly higher'.
And that is not all.
Freight rates are improving although this is still a mixed market. Tanker rates have risen through withdrawal of some Chinese tankers and the need to anticipate the IMO 2020 restrictions on high sulphur shipping fuels. This will be another positive factor for oil prices as better quality crudes are pushed up against high sulphur crudes which have been widely used as bunker fuels.
The latest Trump China Trade Deal has emphasised a large pick up in China demand for US agricultural products especially soybeans. Trump made a big issue of this suggesting farmers would need to plant more soybeans. Futures prices for soybeans have reached 18 month highs and prices for wheat and corn have also risen.
The Commodity Research Bureau's CRB Index of futures on COMEX is showing some very constructive action and seems ready to break an 18 month downtrend.
The picture for the longer term looks even better.
This is very positive despite the pervasive pessimism and also for the Australian economy.
So coming back to the US Bond market the 10 year Treasury Note has provided `Goodbye Kiss' on the lower uptrend line.
The yield on the 10 year is oversold on the downside and now above the downtrend line.
The 30 Year Treasury Bond has also provided a good bye kiss.
The outlook remains clear.
Sentiment is very defensive and has contributed to the reduction in interest rates and the surge in bond prices.
But economic growth is continuing and pressure will soon be really placed on supply of raw materials.
Moves as we have seen in iron ore and gold over this past year are likely to soon apply to copper and oil as well as many other commodities.
The massive volume of funds tied up in bonds will pour out and fuel the uptrends in commodities and commodity stocks.
The ASX S&P ASX 300 Metals and Mines Index has broken its 2008 downtrend, is about to pick up the 2016 uptrend and should be sailing in 2020 and beyond.
BHP might already be there
And RIO not far behind.
Fortescue is looking very good indeed.
These stocks are on 5-6% yields on normal dividends and with the special dividends have rewarded shareholders with +10% dividend income yields.
So much more to come.
Call me to participate.
Barry Dawes BSc F AusIMM(CP) MSAFAA
Martin Place Securities
+61 2 9222 9111
firstname.lastname@example.org October 2019
Dawes Points #92
I own all the stocks mentioned in this report.
What is the Birimian Gold Province in West Africa?
Ghana has a lot of gold and a lot of gold mines.
Cardinal's Namdini is large
The Birimian in SW Ghana is the place to be for gold.
The earnings numbers are large and make this stock very attractive.
Download Cardinal Research Report
The achievement of over 1,000mtpa in crude steel production in China in April 2019 is truly remarkable and may be even higher in Dec Half 2019. This is not a sign of a declining economy in China.
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of raw materials and steel is the most important non-energy commodity for China. It consumes almost 50% of global steel.
Steel is so important across the economy so that whatever happens for steel consumption will just as surely be repeated in aluminium and copper as well as many other commodities where China consumes even more than 50%.
Steel itself is universal and gives a clear indication of activity in every sector within an economy.
The monthly World Steel Association crude steel production figures are one of the best near-real time indicators of economic activity. These World Steel Association figures show the underlying strength of the economy in China and also show the economic strength of other parts of the world.
Obviously the current US-China Trade War will have some impact if it is not soon resolved but because China faces west and not east it is far more concerned with its own economy and those of Asia, Africa and Europe.
But with steel the figures are current and some of these numbers from other parts of the world might surprise you as will be shown a bit later.
The economy in China has continued to grow such that it is currently around US$14tn and 90tn Yuan RMB and despite all the perpetual bearish talk the economy has continued to expand.
The key point is that whilst the growth rate itself is slowing the China economy is adding around US$1tn each year.
Note this idiosyncratic table that shows GDP in US$ falling with a weaker Yuan.
The US$ has been firm so the Yuan RMB has weakened against these other currencies over the past five years.
The key drivers in China are of course a liberalisation of the Communist State that has allowed rapid expansion of commerce of all kinds and also the urbanisation such that since 2000 over 350m people have been added to city life and now cities now make up 60% of the population.
China has a population of around 1420m growing at 5mpa with a demographic problem arising from the One Child policy that is likely to see a population decline from around 2032 as China’s aged cohort peaks.
Another key factor is the remarkable growth in Personal Disposable Incomthat continues to exceed GDP growth reflecting the entry of about 20m people each year into paid workforce rather than on subsistence farming in many parts of China. These people experience a sharp boost in their own incomes and so it affects the averages. The self employed and the entrepreneurs are also adding to this growth rate.
This is particularly important factor as the Middle Classes in China as they move to housing, cars, appliances and better food. The appetite is voracious and inexorable at present.
The savings rate is still very high at >40% and vast hoards of cash are still reported to exist.
It is also noteworthy that wealthy Chinese (and most SE Asian) businesses have just two asset classes for investment – the business (including property) and cash.
Consequently the economic expansion drive remains strong.
Anecdotally, the driving forces of property (location, location, location) together with the dramatic urbanisation has produced very large rises in true property value and rental incomes that can readily support the high property debt load.
And I see no sign of any significant slowdown that could turn to a downturn although the momentum has clearly slowed. Nevertheless, overall investment in construction is still rising.
With this level of construction it is to be expected that demand for steel will be firm.
It is notable that demand for steel reinforcing bar is at robust new highs.
The MPS steel rate of change indicator is providing another turning point. The 12 month moving average is ~5% higher than a year ago and the six month rate of change is turning up again.
Crude steel output should be even higher in the Dec Half.
It has been clear that domestic iron ore production in China has seen a dramatic decline of around 50% from highs in 2014 as the iron ore price fell. Almost all iron ore production in China is magnetite ore and requires crushing and grinding beneficiation to produce the saleable 65-70% magnetite concentrate so it is a high cost source of iron units and mines closed accordingly. Ore grades had been declining over the past 5-8 years down to around 15% but with closure of some very low grade mines the average has begun to rise again.
With rise in crude steel production and the decline in local iron ore production the level of imports rose strongly and Australia is the most important supplier.
Port stockpiles in China had risen in 2017/18but began to turn down so with the loss of around 40mtpa of Brazillian output the market saw over 20mt cut from stockpiles in just two months. Clearly this was more strong demand than declining Brazillian supply when viewed against the massive 1034mtpa monthly crude steel production in April.
No wonder the iron ore price has been rising.
But as indicated above, it is not just China.
India has become the second largest producer of crude steel with output now around 110mtpa with and has passed Japan.
Importantly, India has produced this steel from its own mines. Also India uses magnetite concentrates for use in the production of Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) and Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) for about 30% of its crude steel production in processes that are using gas as the reductant rather than the blast furnace route with coking coal.
The demand however is outstripping existing mines and bureaucracy issues over mining titles is likely to limit near term expansion. India is now an importer.
India would like to be producing 300mtpa of crude steel by 2030 so the jump from 110mt will be 190m crude steel requiring about 300mtpa of iron ore. Probably 60% of this will need to be imported.
Where will it come from?
So with India needing more iron ore and Sth Korea still growing and Vietnam accelerating rapidly from a small start to a current 18mtpa the market for iron ore must remain tight.
And in addition to Vietnam we have other strong growth in MENA where again most production is as magnetite concentrate fed DRI products that use very low cost local gas and these are fed into electric arc furnaces (EAFs) that use low cost electricity from low cost gas for steel making.
So it becomes no small wonder that the iron ore price is strong.
It is clearly a demand issue not supply driven.
The iron ore price completed a text book A-B-C correction with that 5 wave C completing a Wave 2 into the 2016 low and this enabled Dawes Points to then call for new highs to come in iron ore prices. That outlook is still on track.
Iron ore prices are heading up and so are those for coking coal.
So let’s now look at the Shanghai stock indices to see how the market views China.
Looks robust to me holding that 27 year uptrend and the recent 30% jump into 2019.
And I do like this relative performance chart vs the S&P500.
And while we are at it lets look at India’s Nifty 50 Index.
And also the Nifty against S&P 500:-
Capital is flowing to these `emerging markets’.
So the ASX Metals and Mining Index looks robust.
As do BHP
The chart formations for these companies suggest VERY MUCH higher prices are coming for these stocks.
The Dawes Points Global Boom is firmly on track.
Call me to participate.
Barry Dawes BSc F AusIMM MSAFAA
Executive Chairman Martin Place Securities
I own many of the stocks mentioned in this report.
After almost six years the US$ Gold price is still meandering in a roughly US$200 band between US$1180 and US$1350. Each move toward US$1350 gets the market excited but we have seen about half a dozen false dawns in just the past three years.
The true 'fundamentals' on gold have always been unfathomable. The bullish position on so many levels has been there for years and is so clear, but price response has been muted. The Dawes Points simplified position of viewing of demand from Asia running down inventory in the West and likely to cause a short squeeze is wonderfully logical especially against the background of massive open positions on COMEX that are impossible to cover from registered COMEX stockpiles. Currency volatility continues and sovereign bonds still seem absurdly overpriced. Inflation is rising in so many sectors and all the key indicators are positive, yet the meandering continues.
But something else seems to have just happened last Friday 26 April 2019.
The ASX XGD Gold Index jumped 2.15% with some of the leaders rising 3-4%.
On COMEX after a soft start US$ gold jumped ~US$9/oz in a constructive technical pattern that could give gold the power to push through US$1300 again and back up to retest US$1350.
The breaking of the downtrends from the 2011 highs for gold and many other related assets has been highlighted here repeatedly because it is to me clearly signalling that the global change in trend is underway.
Reviewing the North American markets for gold and goldstocks is critical to an understanding of overall investor sentiment and the direction of capital flows in precious metals markets. If it not happening there it won't be happening here.
Having said that of course, the ASX senior goldstocks have been the global market leaders but the smaller stocks are currently shunned and reflect the moods for many of their North American counterparts.
Moreover, the Australian market is far too small to be representative of global trends. It is also clear that it is international funds not local funds involved in most activity in the ASX Gold Sector.
So, in the US it is the Philadelphia Gold Index ($XAU) that is the key gold index for the market place as it has the gold sector heavyweights like Barrick (GOLD) and Newmont (NEM).
As noted, we have been spoilt by the outstanding performances of the likes of NST, EVN, SBM, RRL and SAR in recent years but the XAU has still yet to break this important 2011 downtrend.
In recent times, however, the market focus has passed from the XAU Index to the Van Eck GDX goldstock ETF as the market weathervane.
This HAS actually broken its downtrend and is very constructively supporting on its breakout line and now looks ready to move higher.
As with the ASX gold stocks on Friday 26 April some North American gold stocks put on a 3-10% spurt.
Something is happening.
Rumours are suggesting a large central bank order is soaking up significant amounts of physical metal from the London market and from COMEX.
Might this be signs of the Dawes Points short cover rally we were talking about?
The US$ is gaining strength, particularly against the Euro (note the Euro might be heading for parity against the US$) but the US$ gold price is rising and the gold price in Euros is rising faster.
Gold in A$ has already broken out and is above A$1,820 again.
Positive price action of gold in many currencies shows the making of a true bull market in gold.
A bull market in ALL currencies.
From the Dawes Points perspective this constructive technical action across many markets should lead to the US$1350-70 resistance being tested and significantly exceeded in 2019.
The state of the Australian Gold Industry is excellent.
Recent Dept of Science and Industry data on Australian gold production showed a new quarterly annualised record of gold production at 331tpa.
At 331tpa Australia is the clear second largest producer of gold behind China.
Australia should see a new annual record of at least 325tonnes in 2019 and the is indeed a possibility of 350tpa within a couple of years.
Importantly, NSW (13% - mostly from Cadia and Cowal) and Victoria (5% - mostly from Fosterville) are beginning to show significant and growing shares of Australian output behind the leader WA (63%).
Expenditures on Gold Exploration are rising and the latest data giving Dec Qtr 2018 figures show an annualised rate of almost A$1000m and a very rapid and large recovery from the lows of 2014.
Some Australian companies are highlighting new gold resource discovery costs of A$10/oz but even if the figures are A$50/oz this billion-dollar expenditure should add 20 million oz (~700t) of new gold resources per annum.
This could convert to an additional 1mozpa (30tonnes) of annual gold output each year within a couple of years through mine expansions or new mines.
350tpa doesn't seem so far away.
At the same time China just might find that many of its multitude of small mines might not maintain output so China might quickly fall from its now sub 400tpa gold production to less than 350tpa.
The MPS Gold Matrix of 19 important Australian producers gives total FY2019 gold production from these 19 of about 5.3moz, up about 10.5% on FY2018. This is almost 90% Australia-only production.
This forecast to grow further so that the 2014-2021 CGR is 12%pa.
Newcrest and Kirkland Lake are not included, nor are the Australian operations of companies such as Barrick, Newmont and Goldfields. (The 21 key companies here includes two about-to-be-completed mergers to become 19 in the Matrix)
Additional stocks will be added to this Matrix so it will be clear to see that Australian gold production is still on the rise.
The performance of the XGD has historically been very robust in its bull phases.
From 2000 to 2008 it was 585% over 8 years
From 2000 to 2011 it was 750%
From the Nov 2014 low the XGD is up 243%
The technicals of the break in the 2011 downtrend, the backtest on that downtrend line and then the surge, are classic text books examples.
It should not be too long before the XGD makes new highs above the 2011 peaks.
Note that NCM currently makes up around 43% of the XGD so NCM will be a massive influence on the price level3 of the XGD.
Also, the big seven (NCM, EVN, NST, SBM, RRL, OGC and SAR) make up 90% of the XGD.
The ratio of the XGD against the A$ gold price has been an average of around 5x but this ratio is only just over 3x.
I think 5x might well be more appropriate.
That is a 66% rise in ASX Gold Index against the A$ gold price.
This graphic below had shown mostly one-way traffic lower since the 2011 highs but the XGD did exceed 6,000 in March 2019 to make new six year highs.
This graphic should become very useful again once the old high of 8499 is exceeded. We will be able to look for and recognise the 25% style pullbacks that we saw in the 2000-2008 stages of this bull market.
ASX Gold Sector
The ASX XGD is not a very useful index given that is has 21 stocks and 90% of its market cap is covered by just 7 stocks.
There are hundreds of other gold companies outside the ASX XGD and that index is simply not representative.
MPS has therefore set up its own index for 25 emerging gold producers where stocks have current production, are in mining development or have a reasonable expectation of being able to mine ore and produce gold within 5 years.
Smaller stocks have significantly underperformed the XGD over the past 18-24 months.
It should be time for these smaller stocks to catch up with their bigger cap brothers.
In early December 2014 Dawes Points called the low in the ASX XGD Gold Index in that November of 2014.
In that 4 December issue of Dawes Points a portfolio of gold stocks was recommended.
The 17 stock portfolio has been published a number of times.
The key to the portfolio was to overemphasise size and liquidity but to also include smaller stocks that could provide deliver very high returns.
The portfolio has been published a few times but this is the first time the weekly performance can be seen over the past 4.5 years.
In these 4.5 years there has been no trading in the model portfolio. Just the original stocks. No adding or subtracting from holdings, no rights issue take ups or option exercise. Dividends are banked and no interest is derived from cash at bank.
Over the 53 months the portfolio returned 253% at current market prices.
The XGD was up 220% whilst the XGDAI Accumulation Index was up 208%.
The Dawes Points diverse portfolio provided the best result even though some of the smaller stocks had appalling performances.
The current moment of confluence of technical price indications is suggesting that the current market mood maybe leading to a significant low in prices for the Gold Sector assets.
Accordingly Dawes Points has suggested another 20 stock portfolio to participate in the market for the next three to five years.
Let's see how this portfolio runs.
I will tell you the stock codes in a couple of months.
You will probably be able to work out the bigger stocks but some of the smaller ones might keep you guessing.
And as a parting comment, just look at the results of the 2012-14 Resources Boom.
Total Resources Sector Commodity exports in Dec Qtr 2019 hit A$280bnpa Almost 70% of this came from just iron ore, coal and LNG.
The gains are coming from price and volumes.
The gain in total Resources export revenues since Dec Qtr 2017 was 23% up on that pcp. Prices are even higher in Mar and June Qtrs 2019.
It is hard to see a weaker A$ with a rising US$ gold price and such strong revenue growth.
The iron ore market is continuing to show the strength recognised here almost three years ago and there will be new highs in iron ore prices.
Oil is still tight and LNG prices will continue to reflect oil prices and not US domestic gas prices.
It will not be just gold that is to rise.
Call me to participate.
Barry Dawes BSc F AusIMM (CP) MSAFAA
Executive Chairman Martin Place Securities
I own many of the stocks mentioned in this report.